28th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum – The Matter of Taiwan: Exploring a Long-Standing Flash Point of the Indo-Pacific

Prof. Renato de Castro discussed how the Taiwan Crisis affects the Philippines, highlighting its potential to trigger a larger conflict between China and the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific. The crisis, which has been ongoing for decades, became a concern for the Philippine-U.S. alliance in 1996 when China fired ballistic missiles near Taiwan. However, the focus later shifted to counterterrorism and China’s maritime expansion in the West Philippine Sea.

The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war reignited concerns in Southeast Asia, as the Philippines realized that a Taiwan conflict could result in refugee flows, the return of overseas Filipino workers, and possible military spillover into northern Luzon. In response, the Marcos administration strengthened security ties with the U.S., reaffirming the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and expanding the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Initially, four EDCA sites were designated for joint operations in case of conflict, but this number has since increased to nine, primarily in northern Luzon.

To further bolster defense, the Philippines developed the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC), a strategy aimed at enhancing the military’s maritime capabilities. CADC focuses on improving radar coverage, acquiring air and naval assets, developing missile defense systems, and strengthening command operations. It also prepares the Armed Forces of the Philippines to secure key waterways like the Luzon Strait, Balintang Channel, and Bashi Channel, critical in a potential China-Taiwan conflict. Additionally, the CADC enables joint operations with U.S. forces, positioning the Philippines as a key player in regional security.